A strong jet stream currently racing over the Northeast is a key ingredient that will eventually lead to the development of a bomb cyclone eyeing France, Ireland and the United Kingdom later this week with damaging wind gusts and torrential rain.
Wind speeds in the upper atmosphere across Maine are reaching over 200 mph Tuesday, fueled by a large change in temperature over the eastern U.S. A weather balloon launched from Caribou, Maine, Monday night recorded 206-mph winds around 30,000 feet.
Pilots in the region are taking advantage of the robust tailwind. The FOX Forecast Center found Air France Flight 79, heading from Los Angeles to Paris Tuesday morning, received a 200-mph boost in ground speed by flying into the heart of the jet stream, moving at 768 mph relative to the ground. The flight would normally expect a ground speed of around 559 mph.
Jet streams are narrow bands of strong wind in the upper levels of the atmosphere and follow the boundaries between hot and cold air, according to the National Weather Service. And since that boundary is more pronounced during the winter months, the jet stream is stronger during the winter.
But the jet stream is about to turn from aviation quirk into fueling a dangerous bomb cyclone set to quickly develop across the Atlantic Ocean and eventually impact northern Europe this week. An area of low pressure just off the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday morning is set to rapidly develop and soon become what the U.K. Met Office is naming Storm Ciarán later Tuesday and into Wednesday.
“It’s this jet stream barreling out of North America that will pick up Storm Ciarán and intensify it,” the U.K. Met Office’s Alex Deakin said in a weather briefing posted on X. “And particularly as we go through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the storm system crosses the jet stream, and that’s when it really intensifies.”
Computer forecast models show the storm “bombing out” from about 990 millibars early Wednesday morning to about 952 millibars by early Thursday morning as it approaches Ireland and the U.K. – well within the criteria for a “bomb cyclone,” which is a pressure drop of at least 24 millibars within 24 hours.
With the storm center forecast to head up along the English Channel and into southern England, High Wind Warnings are in effect across the southern coasts of England, northern areas of France and the western coast of Wales for gusts up to 80 to 100 mph along France’s north coasts, 70 to 85 mph along the English Channel and some 65- to 75-mph gusts inland in southwestern England and northern France.
“Very strong northwesterly winds associated with Storm Ciarán could disrupt travel, utilities and may cause some structural damage,” the U.K. Met Office warned in its wind alerts.
In addition, heavy rain is forecast across the southern U.K., Ireland and northern France, leading to flash flood worries and rough surf with large seas forecast for the coasts of France.
Ciarán will be a slow-moving storm with impacts lingering into Thursday, followed by calming wind and rain, though unsettled conditions will remain through the end of the week.
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